PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
George Kittle or Brock Bowers: who should I start in Week 4?
· George Kittle: SF vs DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Brock Bowers: LV vs KC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: George Kittle edges Brock Bowers, outscoring him in 52.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (54%). Need a safe floor? George Kittle (p10 2.7). Need upside? George Kittle (p85 18.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | George Kittle | 52% | TE2 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 22.6 |
| Brock Bowers | 48% | TE4 | 11.0 | 3.7 | 20.7 | |
| Half-PPR | George Kittle | 53% | TE2 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 18.8 |
| Brock Bowers | 47% | TE3 | 8.6 | 2.7 | 16.9 | |
| Standard | George Kittle | 54% | TE2 | 6.4 | 1.7 | 15.2 |
| Brock Bowers | 46% | TE4 | 5.8 | 1.5 | 13.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.