PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
DK Metcalf or Mack Hollins: who should I start in Week 4?
· DK Metcalf: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Mack Hollins: NE vs BUF, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: DK Metcalf edges Mack Hollins, outscoring him in 51.7% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? DK Metcalf (p10 2.1). Need upside? Mack Hollins (p85 14.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | DK Metcalf | 52% | WR32 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 17.3 |
| Mack Hollins | 48% | WR35 | 8.7 | 2.3 | 17.7 | |
| Half-PPR | DK Metcalf | 52% | WR34 | 7.1 | 2.1 | 14.5 |
| Mack Hollins | 48% | WR35 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 14.9 | |
| Standard | DK Metcalf | 51% | WR34 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 11.7 |
| Mack Hollins | 49% | WR35 | 4.8 | 0.9 | 12.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.