PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Deshaun Watson or Jalen Hurts: who should I start in Week 4?
· Deshaun Watson: CLE vs PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · Jalen Hurts: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Deshaun Watson edges Jalen Hurts, outscoring him in 51.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? Deshaun Watson (p10 9.2). Need upside? Deshaun Watson (p85 24.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Deshaun Watson | 51% | QB15 | 16.1 | 9.2 | 24.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | 49% | QB16 | 15.9 | 8.9 | 24.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Deshaun Watson | 51% | QB15 | 16.1 | 9.2 | 24.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | 49% | QB16 | 15.9 | 8.9 | 24.1 | |
| Standard | Deshaun Watson | 51% | QB15 | 16.1 | 9.2 | 24.4 |
| Jalen Hurts | 49% | QB16 | 15.9 | 8.9 | 24.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.