PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Derrick Henry or James Cook III: who should I start in Week 4?
· Derrick Henry: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · James Cook III: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Derrick Henry edges James Cook III, outscoring him in 54.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (54%) and standard (54%). Need a safe floor? Derrick Henry (p10 7.4). Need upside? Derrick Henry (p85 28.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Derrick Henry | 54% | RB6 | 17.0 | 7.9 | 29.6 |
| James Cook III | 46% | RB10 | 15.7 | 7.4 | 27.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Derrick Henry | 54% | RB6 | 16.2 | 7.4 | 28.7 |
| James Cook III | 46% | RB8 | 14.9 | 7.0 | 26.1 | |
| Standard | Derrick Henry | 54% | RB3 | 15.5 | 6.9 | 27.9 |
| James Cook III | 46% | RB7 | 14.2 | 6.5 | 25.4 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.