PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
D'Andre Swift or Saquon Barkley: who should I start in Week 4?
· D'Andre Swift: CHI vs NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Saquon Barkley: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start D'Andre Swift over Saquon Barkley in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 61% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (60%) and standard (62%). Need a safe floor? D'Andre Swift (p10 4.8). Need upside? D'Andre Swift (p85 22.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | D'Andre Swift | 60% | RB15 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 23.3 |
| Saquon Barkley | 40% | RB17 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 19.0 | |
| Half-PPR | D'Andre Swift | 61% | RB14 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 22.4 |
| Saquon Barkley | 39% | RB17 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 17.5 | |
| Standard | D'Andre Swift | 62% | RB14 | 11.4 | 4.3 | 21.5 |
| Saquon Barkley | 38% | RB18 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 16.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.