PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
D'Andre Swift or Alvin Kamara: who should I start in Week 4?
· D'Andre Swift: CHI vs NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Alvin Kamara: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Start D'Andre Swift over Alvin Kamara in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (60%). Need a safe floor? D'Andre Swift (p10 4.6). Need upside? D'Andre Swift (p85 19.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | D'Andre Swift | 55% | RB17 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 21.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 45% | RB18 | 11.1 | 4.3 | 19.3 | |
| Half-PPR | D'Andre Swift | 57% | RB16 | 10.9 | 4.6 | 19.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | 43% | RB18 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 17.3 | |
| Standard | D'Andre Swift | 60% | RB15 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 18.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 40% | RB19 | 7.7 | 2.4 | 15.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.