PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
Dalton Kincaid or T.J. Hockenson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Dalton Kincaid: BUF vs NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · T.J. Hockenson: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Dalton Kincaid edges T.J. Hockenson, outscoring him in 54.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (57%). Need a safe floor? Dalton Kincaid (p10 1.8). Need upside? Dalton Kincaid (p85 16.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Dalton Kincaid | 53% | TE7 | 9.4 | 2.4 | 19.8 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 47% | TE8 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 17.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Dalton Kincaid | 54% | TE7 | 7.5 | 1.8 | 16.8 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 46% | TE8 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 14.4 | |
| Standard | Dalton Kincaid | 57% | TE5 | 5.6 | 1.1 | 14.0 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 43% | TE9 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 11.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.