PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › QB
Dak Prescott or Jalen Hurts: who should I start in Week 4?
· Dak Prescott: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Jalen Hurts: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Dak Prescott edges Jalen Hurts, outscoring him in 51.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Jalen Hurts (p10 8.9). Need upside? Dak Prescott (p85 24.9).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Dak Prescott | 52% | QB14 | 16.3 | 8.8 | 24.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 48% | QB16 | 15.9 | 8.9 | 24.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Dak Prescott | 52% | QB14 | 16.3 | 8.8 | 24.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 48% | QB16 | 15.9 | 8.9 | 24.1 | |
| Standard | Dak Prescott | 52% | QB14 | 16.3 | 8.8 | 24.9 |
| Jalen Hurts | 48% | QB16 | 15.9 | 8.9 | 24.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.