PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Chuba Hubbard or D'Andre Swift: who should I start in Week 4?
· Chuba Hubbard: CAR vs DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET · D'Andre Swift: CHI vs NYJ, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Chuba Hubbard edges D'Andre Swift, outscoring him in 51.5% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (51%). Need a safe floor? D'Andre Swift (p10 5.2). Need upside? Chuba Hubbard (p85 23.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chuba Hubbard | 52% | RB12 | 14.1 | 5.7 | 24.7 |
| D'Andre Swift | 48% | RB14 | 13.5 | 5.7 | 23.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Chuba Hubbard | 51% | RB12 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 23.2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 49% | RB14 | 12.4 | 5.2 | 22.5 | |
| Standard | Chuba Hubbard | 51% | RB11 | 11.5 | 4.3 | 21.8 |
| D'Andre Swift | 49% | RB14 | 11.4 | 4.6 | 21.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.