PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
Christian Watson or Dontayvion Wicks: who should I start in Week 4?
· Christian Watson: GB vs TB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Dontayvion Wicks: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Christian Watson edges Dontayvion Wicks, outscoring him in 52.4% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (52%). Need a safe floor? Christian Watson (p10 3.1). Need upside? Christian Watson (p85 20.4).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Christian Watson | 53% | WR13 | 12.6 | 4.2 | 23.7 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 48% | WR17 | 11.9 | 3.6 | 23.1 | |
| Half-PPR | Christian Watson | 52% | WR13 | 10.4 | 3.1 | 20.4 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 48% | WR15 | 9.8 | 2.7 | 20.1 | |
| Standard | Christian Watson | 52% | WR13 | 8.0 | 2.0 | 17.2 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 48% | WR15 | 7.6 | 1.7 | 17.0 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.