PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Chase Brown or Kyren Williams: who should I start in Week 4?
· Chase Brown: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Kyren Williams: LAR vs PHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Kyren Williams edges Chase Brown, outscoring him in 50.3% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Chase Brown (51%). Standard: Kyren Williams (52%). Need a safe floor? Kyren Williams (p10 5.3). Need upside? Chase Brown (p85 24.0).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chase Brown | 51% | RB11 | 14.6 | 6.0 | 25.8 |
| Kyren Williams | 49% | RB12 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 24.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Chase Brown | 50% | RB11 | 13.0 | 5.1 | 24.0 |
| Kyren Williams | 50% | RB12 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 23.3 | |
| Standard | Chase Brown | 48% | RB12 | 11.4 | 4.0 | 22.3 |
| Kyren Williams | 52% | RB11 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 22.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.