PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Chase Brown or Bucky Irving: who should I start in Week 4?
· Chase Brown: CIN vs JAC, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Bucky Irving: TB vs GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Chase Brown edges Bucky Irving, outscoring him in 50.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: Bucky Irving (50%). Standard: Chase Brown (50%). Need a safe floor? Bucky Irving (p10 4.8). Need upside? Chase Brown (p85 21.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Chase Brown | 50% | RB13 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 23.5 |
| Bucky Irving | 50% | RB12 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 22.5 | |
| Half-PPR | Chase Brown | 50% | RB13 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 21.6 |
| Bucky Irving | 50% | RB15 | 11.4 | 4.8 | 20.3 | |
| Standard | Chase Brown | 50% | RB13 | 10.0 | 3.5 | 19.9 |
| Bucky Irving | 50% | RB16 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 18.1 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.