PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
CeeDee Lamb or Dontayvion Wicks: who should I start in Week 4?
· CeeDee Lamb: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Dontayvion Wicks: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: CeeDee Lamb edges Dontayvion Wicks, outscoring him in 50.9% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. PPR: CeeDee Lamb (52%). Standard: Dontayvion Wicks (50%). Need a safe floor? CeeDee Lamb (p10 3.9). Need upside? Dontayvion Wicks (p85 22.7).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | CeeDee Lamb | 52% | WR10 | 14.2 | 5.3 | 26.0 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 48% | WR11 | 13.7 | 4.6 | 26.1 | |
| Half-PPR | CeeDee Lamb | 51% | WR10 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 21.9 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 49% | WR11 | 11.3 | 3.4 | 22.7 | |
| Standard | CeeDee Lamb | 50% | WR11 | 8.8 | 2.5 | 18.1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 50% | WR9 | 9.0 | 2.2 | 19.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.