PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › WR
CeeDee Lamb or Chris Olave: who should I start in Week 4?
· CeeDee Lamb: DAL vs HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Chris Olave: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: CeeDee Lamb edges Chris Olave, outscoring him in 52.8% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? CeeDee Lamb (p10 4.4). Need upside? CeeDee Lamb (p85 23.2).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | CeeDee Lamb | 52% | WR8 | 15.2 | 5.8 | 27.3 |
| Chris Olave | 48% | WR10 | 14.3 | 5.4 | 26.1 | |
| Half-PPR | CeeDee Lamb | 53% | WR7 | 12.3 | 4.4 | 23.2 |
| Chris Olave | 47% | WR10 | 11.5 | 4.0 | 22.1 | |
| Standard | CeeDee Lamb | 53% | WR7 | 9.5 | 2.8 | 19.2 |
| Chris Olave | 47% | WR10 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 18.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.