PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Bucky Irving or Saquon Barkley: who should I start in Week 4?
· Bucky Irving: TB vs GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Saquon Barkley: PHI vs LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Bucky Irving over Saquon Barkley in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 56% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (55%) and standard (57%). Need a safe floor? Bucky Irving (p10 4.1). Need upside? Bucky Irving (p85 20.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Bucky Irving | 55% | RB16 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 21.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | 45% | RB17 | 10.6 | 4.3 | 19.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Bucky Irving | 56% | RB16 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 20.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | 44% | RB17 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 17.5 | |
| Standard | Bucky Irving | 57% | RB16 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 19.7 |
| Saquon Barkley | 43% | RB18 | 8.4 | 3.2 | 16.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.