PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Bucky Irving or Emanuel Wilson: who should I start in Week 4?
· Bucky Irving: TB vs GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Emanuel Wilson: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET
Start Bucky Irving over Emanuel Wilson in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 57% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (58%) and standard (55%). Need a safe floor? Bucky Irving (p10 4.1). Need upside? Bucky Irving (p85 20.6).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Bucky Irving | 58% | RB16 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 21.6 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 42% | RB21 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 19.3 | |
| Half-PPR | Bucky Irving | 57% | RB16 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 20.6 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 43% | RB18 | 9.3 | 2.9 | 19.0 | |
| Standard | Bucky Irving | 55% | RB16 | 10.2 | 3.6 | 19.7 |
| Emanuel Wilson | 45% | RB17 | 9.0 | 2.7 | 18.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.