PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs: who should I start in Week 4?
· Bijan Robinson: ATL vs NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Jahmyr Gibbs: DET vs CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Bijan Robinson edges Jahmyr Gibbs, outscoring him in 53.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Bijan Robinson (p10 10.1). Need upside? Bijan Robinson (p85 34.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Bijan Robinson | 53% | RB1 | 23.2 | 11.6 | 36.6 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 47% | RB2 | 21.7 | 10.3 | 35.7 | |
| Half-PPR | Bijan Robinson | 53% | RB1 | 20.9 | 10.1 | 34.1 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 47% | RB2 | 19.6 | 8.9 | 33.3 | |
| Standard | Bijan Robinson | 53% | RB1 | 18.6 | 8.5 | 31.5 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 47% | RB2 | 17.6 | 7.4 | 31.2 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.