PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Bijan Robinson or Derrick Henry: who should I start in Week 4?
· Bijan Robinson: ATL vs NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · Derrick Henry: BAL vs TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET
Start Bijan Robinson over Derrick Henry in Week 4 (half-PPR): he outscores him in 61% of 10,000 simulated games. Same pick in PPR (64%) and standard (58%). Need a safe floor? Bijan Robinson (p10 9.9). Need upside? Bijan Robinson (p85 33.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Bijan Robinson | 64% | RB1 | 22.2 | 11.1 | 35.2 |
| Derrick Henry | 36% | RB6 | 17.2 | 7.9 | 29.0 | |
| Half-PPR | Bijan Robinson | 61% | RB1 | 20.3 | 9.9 | 33.1 |
| Derrick Henry | 39% | RB4 | 16.4 | 7.5 | 28.1 | |
| Standard | Bijan Robinson | 58% | RB1 | 18.4 | 8.5 | 30.9 |
| Derrick Henry | 42% | RB3 | 15.5 | 6.9 | 27.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.