PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Bhayshul Tuten or Alvin Kamara: who should I start in Week 4?
· Bhayshul Tuten: JAC vs CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · Alvin Kamara: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Bhayshul Tuten edges Alvin Kamara, outscoring him in 54.6% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (53%) and standard (56%). Need a safe floor? Bhayshul Tuten (p10 3.4). Need upside? Bhayshul Tuten (p85 17.3).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Bhayshul Tuten | 53% | RB20 | 9.7 | 3.7 | 18.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 47% | RB23 | 9.1 | 2.8 | 17.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Bhayshul Tuten | 55% | RB20 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 17.3 |
| Alvin Kamara | 45% | RB23 | 8.2 | 2.4 | 16.7 | |
| Standard | Bhayshul Tuten | 56% | RB19 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 16.4 |
| Alvin Kamara | 44% | RB24 | 7.4 | 2.0 | 15.7 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.