PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › TE
AJ Barner or Juwan Johnson: who should I start in Week 4?
· AJ Barner: SEA vs LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · Juwan Johnson: NO vs ATL, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: AJ Barner edges Juwan Johnson, outscoring him in 51.1% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (52%) and standard (50%). Need a safe floor? AJ Barner (p10 1.1). Need upside? AJ Barner (p85 12.8).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | AJ Barner | 52% | TE14 | 6.9 | 1.5 | 15.5 |
| Juwan Johnson | 48% | TE16 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 15.3 | |
| Half-PPR | AJ Barner | 51% | TE14 | 5.2 | 1.1 | 12.8 |
| Juwan Johnson | 49% | TE15 | 5.1 | 0.9 | 12.8 | |
| Standard | AJ Barner | 50% | TE14 | 3.4 | 0.5 | 10.4 |
| Juwan Johnson | 50% | TE13 | 3.4 | 0.4 | 10.6 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.