PropStart/Sit › Week 4 close calls › RB
Aaron Jones Sr. or Jaylen Warren: who should I start in Week 4?
· Aaron Jones Sr.: MIN vs MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · Jaylen Warren: PIT vs CLE, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET
Coin flip in Week 4: Aaron Jones Sr. edges Jaylen Warren, outscoring him in 52.2% of 10,000 simulated games (half-PPR), so let your floor/upside need decide. Same pick in PPR (51%) and standard (53%). Need a safe floor? Jaylen Warren (p10 6.7). Need upside? Aaron Jones Sr. (p85 28.1).
| Scoring | Player | Wins H2H | Rank | Median | Floor p10 | Ceiling p85 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPR | Aaron Jones Sr. | 51% | RB7 | 17.1 | 7.1 | 29.4 |
| Jaylen Warren | 49% | RB8 | 16.6 | 7.6 | 27.8 | |
| Half-PPR | Aaron Jones Sr. | 52% | RB7 | 15.8 | 6.4 | 28.1 |
| Jaylen Warren | 48% | RB8 | 15.1 | 6.7 | 25.9 | |
| Standard | Aaron Jones Sr. | 53% | RB6 | 14.6 | 5.7 | 26.8 |
| Jaylen Warren | 47% | RB9 | 13.6 | 5.8 | 24.3 |
Both players are simulated together in the same 10,000 games, so shared-game correlation is included. Ties count half.
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PropSims own-model output; model opinion, not advice. Our ranges are still slightly too narrow (76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. 80% target). For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+.