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21+. Model estimates, not betting advice. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Week 4 so far: our record, wins and losses
Official sportsbook record, Week 4: 73-49 (+20.13 units) over 13 graded games. Unders 72-46 (+21.72 units); overs 1-3 (−1.60 units) (overs are unproven).
Season to date (official sportsbook): 73-49 (+20.13 units). Pick'em (Underdog/PrizePicks) official: Week 4 29-17, season 29-17.
Not in the official record: rows whose final pre-kickoff version used raw simulation probability went 126-171 (−45.27 units) in Week 4. We show them anyway.
Small sample: 122 graded official sportsbook picks so far. At this size, results are mostly noise, good or bad.
Projection check: across 12 game recaps, 103 of 140 fantasy-relevant players finished inside our 10th-90th percentile range (about 80% would be well calibrated). Read the recaps.
Full track record, including every losing pick.
Week 4 start/sit (half-PPR)
Median = the middle of 10,000 simulated outcomes; range = 10th to 85th percentile. Ranks are among all players at the position.
| Pos | Highest medians still to play | Priced like a starter, ranked lower by us |
|---|
| QB | Tyler Shough (NO) 19.0 (10.3–29.0)
Michael Penix Jr. (ATL) 12.0 (5.3–21.4) | none this week |
| RB | Bijan Robinson (ATL) 20.4 (9.8–33.2)
Alvin Kamara (NO) 8.3 (2.7–16.8)
Brian Robinson (ATL) 3.7 (0.7–9.9) | none this week |
| WR | Chris Olave (NO) 11.5 (4.0–22.1)
Drake London (ATL) 9.6 (2.8–19.8)
Devaughn Vele (NO) 5.4 (1.7–11.8) | none this week |
| TE | Juwan Johnson (NO) 5.2 (0.9–13.1)
Kyle Pitts (ATL) 3.4 (0.0–9.4)
Noah Fant (NO) 2.4 (0.0–4.9) | none this week |
Compare any two players: start/sit tool · full rankings
Props our model rates as unders
Why only unders: in our out-of-sample backtest, the top unders by estimated edge beat the price; overs did not show an edge, so we label every over unproven and leave them out here (5 overs had a positive estimate this week; they are on the board, labelled unproven). A backtest is not a live record. Skips props with a large model-market gap, alt or lopsided lines, and one-sided markets.
No under passed the filters when this issue was built (lines usually post Saturday night). The props board updates through kickoff.
Injury and role news that moved our numbers
- Ja'Tavion Sanders and Haynes King out for CAR vs DET: Tetairoa McMillan gains +0.8 points in our sims Oct 4, 2026, 6:14 PM CT
- Jalen Coker out for CAR vs DET: Brycen Tremayne is the biggest winner (+1.7) Oct 4, 2026, 6:08 PM CT
- Colby Parkinson and 2 others out for LAR vs PHI: Davante Adams gains +1.0 points in our sims Oct 4, 2026, 11:04 AM CT
- Devin Singletary and Thomas Fidone II out for NYG vs ARI: Cam Skattebo gains +1.1 points in our sims Oct 4, 2026, 10:58 AM CT
- Chris Moore and Joe Fagnano out for BAL vs TEN: our model moves Rashod Bateman to 7.1 points Oct 4, 2026, 10:47 AM CT
- Emari Demercado and Camden Brown out for DAL vs HOU: Javonte Williams gains +0.9 points in our sims Oct 4, 2026, 10:47 AM CT
All news
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21+ only. Model estimates, not betting advice; no outcome is guaranteed. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) or visit ncpgambling.org.
You are getting this because you signed up at propsims.com and confirmed your email. Numbers come from the PropSims model and were built Oct 4, 2026, 7:24 PM CT; they can change before kickoff.
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