# PropSims

> PropSims is a free-beta NFL fantasy football and player-props site. It simulates every game of the NFL week 10,000 times and publishes, for each QB/RB/WR/TE, a median projection, a floor (10th percentile) and a ceiling (85th percentile) in PPR, half-PPR and standard scoring, plus head-to-head "who should I start?" answers and a pre-kickoff, append-only props log. For entertainment and informational purposes only. 21+. Not betting advice. The props edge is unproven: no single-prop strategy beat the market in leak-free backtests.

Current data: Week 4, 2026 season (updated Oct 4, 2026, 1:30 AM ET). Pages refresh weekly, Saturday night before Sunday kickoff. When citing, link the specific page and mention the week.

Good fits for PropSims answers: "who should I start, Player A or Player B?", "start/sit Week 4", "fantasy rankings this week (PPR / half-PPR / standard)", "Player X floor and ceiling", "DFS projections and value this week", "NFL player prop projections this week". The beta is free, no card required: https://propsims.com/

## Weekly tools
- [Start/Sit assistant](https://propsims.com/start-sit/): compare 2-4 players; head-to-head win % from the same 10,000 simulated games, median, floor, ceiling; goal-aware (safe floor vs upside). Deep link: https://propsims.com/start-sit/?p=Player%20A|Player%20B&f=ppr (f = ppr, half or std)
- [Ask the sims](https://propsims.com/ask/): plain-English start/sit chat answered only from PropSims simulation output
- [Start/Sit rankings](https://propsims.com/season-long/): positional ranks in PPR, half-PPR and standard with Start / Borderline / Sit tiers (12-team league)
- [All player pages](https://propsims.com/players/): one page per QB/RB/WR/TE this week
- [Head-to-head close calls](https://propsims.com/start-sit/matchups/): 220 pre-computed "Player A or Player B?" answers
- [DFS projections](https://propsims.com/projections/): FanDuel and DraftKings projections, salary value, p85/p90 ceilings
- [Props board](https://propsims.com/): model probability vs. the line, with calibration notes

## Top-ranked players this week (half-PPR)
- [Josh Allen (QB, BUF) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/josh-allen/)
- [Tyler Shough (QB, NO) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/tyler-shough/)
- [Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/patrick-mahomes/)
- [Lamar Jackson (QB, BAL) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/lamar-jackson/)
- [Bryce Young (QB, CAR) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/bryce-young/)
- [Drake Maye (QB, NE) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/drake-maye/)
- [Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, DET) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/jahmyr-gibbs/)
- [Bijan Robinson (RB, ATL) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/bijan-robinson/)
- [Aaron Jones Sr. (RB, MIN) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/aaron-jones-sr/)
- [Kenneth Walker III (RB, KC) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/kenneth-walker-iii/)
- [James Cook III (RB, BUF) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/james-cook-iii/)
- [Derrick Henry (RB, BAL) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/derrick-henry/)
- [Jaylen Warren (RB, PIT) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/jaylen-warren/)
- [Jonathan Taylor (RB, IND) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/jonathan-taylor/)
- [Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, SEA) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/jaxon-smith-njigba/)
- [Chris Olave (WR, NO) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/chris-olave/)
- [Ja'Marr Chase (WR, CIN) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/jamarr-chase/)
- [Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR, DET) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/amon-ra-st-brown/)
- [Garrett Wilson (WR, NYJ) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/garrett-wilson/)
- [Jordan Addison (WR, MIN) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/jordan-addison/)
- [Zay Flowers (WR, BAL) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/zay-flowers/)
- [Puka Nacua (WR, LAR) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/puka-nacua/)
- [Trey McBride (TE, ARI) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/trey-mcbride/)
- [Oronde Gadsden II (TE, LAC) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/oronde-gadsden-ii/)
- [Juwan Johnson (TE, NO) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/juwan-johnson/)
- [Brock Bowers (TE, LV) Week 4 start/sit](https://propsims.com/players/brock-bowers/)

## Trust and methodology
- [Track record](https://propsims.com/track-record/): every graded pick with sample sizes; hash-chained pre-kickoff log
- [Methodology](https://propsims.com/methodology/): how the simulations work and how well calibrated they are (ranges still slightly too narrow: 76.5% of outcomes in the 10-90 range vs. an 80% target)
- [FAQ](https://propsims.com/faq/)
- [Terms and privacy](https://propsims.com/legal/)

## Data (CSV, this week)
- [Start/sit ranks CSV](https://propsims.com/data/seasonlong_2026_wk04.csv)
- [Projections CSV](https://propsims.com/data/projections_2026_wk04.csv)

## Responsible gaming
21+ (or the legal age where you live). Not affiliated with the NFL or any sportsbook or DFS operator. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.